Pakistan's prime minister fired the defense secretary Wednesday in a
dispute over a memo sent to Washington that has enraged the army,
escalating a crisis pitting the civilian government against the powerful
military leadership.
The army warned darkly of "grievous
consequences" as a result of the standoff, which is hampering U.S.
efforts to rebuild shattered ties with the nuclear-armed nation that are
needed to negotiate an end to the war in neighboring Afghanistan. The
tensions have consumed the ruling elite in a country that is struggling
to overcome economic turmoil and a bloody al-Qaida fueled insurgency.
The
developments were a sign of near-open conflict between the army, which
has often seized power in the country's six-decade history. Relations
between President Asif Ali Zardari and the generals have never been
good, but have soured dramatically in recent months.
Instability
has dogged the government since it took office in 2008 after a 10-year
army dictatorship, and there have been frequent, wrong predictions of
its demise. While unpopular, the government has a solid majority in
parliament and it's unclear whether the army or the Supreme Court have
the stomach to unseat it.
The unsigned memo sent to Washington
asks for its help in reining in the power of the military in exchange
for favorable security policies. It was allegedly masterminded by
Pakistan' envoy to Washington, who resigned in a failed attempt to stem
the fallout.
The affair has outraged the army, which has portrayed it as a treasonous threat to national security.
Acting
under army pressure, the Supreme Court ordered a probe to establish
whether the memo had been sanctioned by Zardari, a prospect that could
lead to impeachment hearings. As part of the investigation, army chief
Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and the head of the main spy agency, Lt. Gen.
Ahmed Shuja Pasha, said in statements submitted to the court that the
memo was genuine and part of a conspiracy against the army.
Prime
Minister Yousuf Reza Gilani said in an interview to a Chinese newspaper
this week that Kayani and Pasha had violated the constitution by
submitting the statements. The interview was also published by
Pakistan's state-run news agency. The army denied the men's actions were
illegal, and said in a statement that Gilani's allegations had "very
serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the
country." It did not elaborate.
Gilani's office later said that
Defense Secretary Naeem Khalid Lodhi, a retired general and army
loyalist seen as a bridge between the high-command and the civilian
government, was dismissed for "gross misconduct and illegal action." He
was replaced with Nargis Sethi, who is close to Gilani, the statement
said.
Gilani said Lodhi had been fired because he failed to inform
the defense secretary about Kayani's and Pasha's statements to the
court.
In a move that some Pakistani media outfits speculated was
somehow connected with the growing crisis, the army announced it had
appointed a new commander for the "111 Brigade," which is responsible
for security in Islamabad and Rawalpindi and has in the past carried out
coups. The army said the posting was part of a "routine" rotation.
The
defense secretary's signature is needed on letters to appoint or
dismiss military leaders, and Lodhi's firing triggered talk on Pakistani
television that Gilani was seeking to dismiss Kayani by installing a
loyalist to the position.
Cabinet minister Khursheed Shah told
reporters this was nonsense and that the current "rise in temperature"
was mostly media hype. "The government doesn't want any kind of
confrontation with any state institutions," he said.
On Tuesday,
the Supreme Court, which is believed to be hostile to the government and
has been used by the army in the past to sanction coups, warned it
could dismiss Gilani unless he followed court orders to pursue a
once-shelved corruption case against Zardari. It called Gilani dishonest
and said he had violated his oath of office by ignoring the order.
It ordered the government to attend proceedings next week to explain its inaction.
"I
think the lines have been drawn, now it depends on who fires the next
shot," said Rasul Bakhsh Rais, professor of political science at Lahore
University of Management Sciences. "It is a three dimensional war: the
judiciary, the political executive and the armed forces."
Observers
say political pressure is growing to topple the government before
Senate elections scheduled for March. Regional and national lawmakers
are expected to vote along party lines, giving Zardari's party a
majority in the upper house, which would ensure him significant
political power for the next six years.
The country also is to hold general elections next year, although some are pushing for the vote to be held sooner.
That prospect now appears increasingly likely, and could be one way out of the crisis.
Gilani
said he thought the Senate elections would take place on time, and
declared "democracy will continue in the country and democracy is a
destiny for Pakistan."
Some pundits have speculated that the
ruling party itself may want to be deposed by the army, believing it
could then get a sympathy vote in new elections and fire up its base by
presenting itself as a victim. Having presided over near economic
collapse, widespread corruption and poor or nonexistent governance, it
can't relish the prospect of running on its record.
Most analysts
say the army has little appetite for a direct coup but is happy to allow
the Supreme Court to end the current setup via "constitutional" means.
"We can't rule out those impulses (an army coup). They are rooted in
history, but right now the army have decided not to. Rather they will
stay by the sidelines and watch the court," the analyst Rais said.
The
turmoil is coinciding with a near-break down in relations with the
United States following American airstrikes on the Afghan border last
November that killed two dozen Pakistani soldiers. Islamabad shut down
vital supply routes into Afghanistan and forced the U.S. to vacate
Shamsi Air Base in southwestern Baluchistan province.
Late
Wednesday, gunmen shot and killed 14 paramilitary Pakistani soldiers, a
security official said, before escaping back into the hills. Baluchistan
is home to separatist rebels and Islamist militants, and both routinely
attack state forces in the poor, remote region. AP