A political crisis gripping Pakistan could take a decisive turn
Monday when its embattled government appears before the Supreme Court,
which is ordering it to reopen a stalled graft probe against the
president or face dismissal.
The hearing represents one front in
what amounts to an assault on the government by the powerful military,
opposition politicians and the Supreme Court. The showdown has all but
paralyzed decision making in the nuclear-armed country, and threatens
fresh turmoil just as the U.S. wants Islamabad's help in negotiating an
end to the war with the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan.
The
fault line is the same one that has plagued Pakistan since its creation
in 1947: an army that can't stomach taking orders from elected
politicians, and which has three times seized power in coups. President
Asif Ali Zardari's government has given the generals control over
foreign and security policy, but the civilian leadership and the top
brass have never seen eye-to-eye since Zardari took office in 2008.
Tensions
spiked last week over an unsigned memo delivered to Washington last
year offering the U.S. a raft of favorable security policies in exchange
for its help in thwarting a supposed army coup. Prime Minister Yousuf
Raza Gilani criticized the army for cooperating with a Supreme Court
probe into the affair, and has said the standoff is nothing less than a
choice between "democracy and dictatorship."
Gilani's comments
followed a warning from the generals — who were infuriated by the memo —
of possible "grievous consequences" ahead.
While the army appears
to have little stomach for a coup, government supporters and many
independent analysts say the military could be happy to watch the
Supreme Court bring down the government for it. The court is a power
center in its own right in Pakistan, and has legitimized past military
takeovers.
Gilani insisted Sunday the government would see out its term in office, scheduled to end in 2013.
"The parliament was elected for five years and it should complete its term," he told reporters.
Against
this backdrop, the Supreme Court has been pressing for investigations
into allegations of corruption against Zardari dating back to before his
time in office. He and other leading politicians had been protected by a
politically inspired amnesty agreed to in 2008 that the court struck
down in 2009, leaving him vulnerable.
The government has so far refused to comply, arguing the president has immunity.
Last
week, the court threatened to dismiss Zardari and Gilani if they
continue to ignore its demands. It ordered government representatives to
appear in court Monday to explain what they planned to do. A senior
member of Zardari's Pakistan Peoples Party said this week the government
would try to get more time from the court, but it's unclear whether the
bench is in a patient mood.
Gilani has called for a "show of
confidence" vote in parliament Monday to support of the government,
which could provide a symbolic boost to the embattled prime minister.
The
court has zeroed in on one corruption investigation taken up by the
Swiss government against Zardari that was halted in 2008 when Pakistani
prosecutors, acting on the amnesty, told Swiss authorities to drop the
case. The court has now ordered the government to contact Swiss
authorities to reopen the probe.
Despite the squeeze by the court
and the army, many Pakistani analysts say that early elections may yet
take the steam out of the assault. Peoples party members privately say
such polls are possible, but not until after March, when Senate
elections expected to return the party a majority in the upper house are
due.
"Once the early polls are announced everything will calm
down," said Fakruddin Ebrahim, a former Supreme Court justice and
attorney general.
The government is also under fire as a result of the memo sent to Washington.
A
separate Supreme Court commission is investigating the note, which some
in the media have dubbed "treasonous." Pakistan's envoy to America,
Husain Haqqani, was alleged to have masterminded the memo. He resigned
late last year, seeking to limit its fallout. If the commission states
Zardari knew about the memo, it could open up another avenue for his
foes to challenge his rule. AP
